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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."